In Week 42, the container market continued its divergence: weak freight rates, strong container prices. HYSUN’s observations show that global spot freight rates continued to soften, but prices for new containers, second-hand containers and container leasing did not follow the decline—some segments even held firm or edged up.
On the freight rate side, Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) fell 2% this week to USD 4,351/FEU. Rates on US routes dropped 3%, while Europe routes fell for the 13th consecutive week. The spot market is still digesting expectations of recovering capacity and relatively weak demand.
Container prices, however, moved in the opposite direction. CIMC’s latest research indicates that order books for the second half are full, with production scheduled through the end of November, and prices continuing to improve month on month. In the first half, standard container prices were still declining year on year, but they have stabilized and rebounded since the second quarter. Meanwhile, orders at both large and small container manufacturers are saturated, and new container prices have risen slightly. In the second-hand container market, transaction prices vary widely depending on container type and condition, but overall prices trended upward compared with last week. In the leasing market, daily rental for 20GP containers at major Chinese ports is about RMB 15–30, and for 40GP about RMB 25–40. Actual prices vary by region, container type, lease term and condition.
The container ship time-charter market also strengthened in tandem. The HARPEX index rose to 2,456 points in early October, with daily charter rates for 1,700 TEU vessels reaching USD 35,000. It should be noted that ship charter rates are not the same as container rental rates, but the fact that both are rising in tandem reflects that capacity and container turnover remain tight.
HYSUN believes the core contradiction behind “falling freight rates, rising container prices” lies on the supply side. Port congestion is absorbing about 12% of global container ship capacity, empty container repatriation remains sluggish, and carriers are actively managing capacity. As a result, container “availability” remains tight. At the same time, rising costs for steel and other raw materials are increasing cost sensitivity for new container manufacturing in Asia.
What is falling is “expectations”; what is expensive is “reality.” In the short term, if port congestion and empty container repatriation do not improve, container prices and leasing costs are unlikely to fall significantly.
HYSUN recommends that cargo owners lock in containers 7–15 days in advance and pay attention to the effective date of carriers’ rate increase notices in the second half of October. For popular routes,
prioritize locking in 40HQ containers; when container types are tight, split shipments with 20GP containers.
Data sources: Drewry WCI, HARPEX, CIMC research and public market quotations. This article is for reference only and does not constitute procurement or investment advice.
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